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  1. #1081
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    Canada Building Permits (MoM) rose 8.5% MoM in January





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  2. #1082
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    Flash: EUR/USD pressuring highs ahead of US Non Farm Payrolls - FXStreet





    FXStreet (Barcelona)
    - Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst notes that as expected, markets had been in consolidation mode ever since Asian opening, waiting for the release of US Non Farm Payroll data.

    Key Quotes


    “The EUR/USD has remained steady above the broken trend line coming from the all time high of 1.6038, and even completed a pullback to it before bouncing to reach fresh year highs around 1.3882.”

    “The strong upward acceleration following ECB decision to leave economic policy unchanged suggest the pair is ready for another leg higher, probably towards fresh highs beyond 1.3900,past December high, albeit cautious investors are rather waiting a confirmation of what is being largely suspected and rumored over the last few weeks: that the US employment sector remains subdue and therefore, the country’s economic recovery.”

    “Given that picture, investors are now mostly waiting for a disappointing number to rush into buying mode and trigger a strong upward continuation, eyeing 1.3920 immediate short term resistance, ahead of key 1.4000 figure.”

    “But what if the number overcomes expectations? In that case and only if the reading is well above the 150K expected, the dollar may get a temporal boost against the EUR, but buyers won’t hesitate to jump in on approaches to 1.3820 area first, and if this last is taken, around 1.3770.”



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  3. #1083
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    USD/CAD capped by 1.1000




    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness surrounding the greenback plus the upbeat sentiment around the risk appetite is keeping the USD/CAD below the 1.100 psychological barrier so far.

    USD/CAD supported at 1.0960

    The pair found decent support in the area of weekly lows near 1.0960 on Thursday, managing to gather some steam and attempt an assault to 1.1000 during the European morning. The current rebound would be put to the test however, as February’s Payrolls are due later in the US economy (consensus expecting 149K) along with labour market data in Canada. “A less constructive mix of results (better US data, disappointing Canadian figures) needs to get USDCAD back through 1.1045 (40-day MA) to stabilize”, suggested Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

    USD/CAD significant levels

    The pair is now losing 0.01% at 1.0990 and the initial support aligns at 1.0955 (low Mar.6) followed by 1.0911 (low Feb.19) and then 1.0905 (low Jan.16). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1046 (high Mar.6) would open the door to 1.1101 (high Mar.5) and finally 1.1118 (high Feb.5).



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  4. #1084
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    Canada Unemployment Rate meets forecasts 7% in February




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  5. #1085
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    EMEA EM Express: Russian ruble falling for fourth running week on Crimea developments



    FXStreet (Łódź) - Ukraine continues to remain in focus in Europe, following the decision of Crimea's parliament to carry out a referendum among the region's residents on whether they want to join Russia or remain part of Ukraine. Sanctions on Russia announced yesterday by the EU and the US don't seem to discourage Putin from declarations that the authorities in Kiev's decisions on the region are illegitimate.”

    It was also reported that the Russian military has been carrying out massive drills not far from the border with Ukraine, while the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitors sent to Crimea were prevented from entering by unidentified armed men for the second day.

    The markets have stabilized somewhat after the EU announced that it would provide aid for Ukraine of at least 11 billion euros. Ukrainian bonds were volatile late on after Kiev suggested that it is considering debt restructuring. In the opinion of the Deutsche Bank Chief EMEA Economist’s however: „under an IMF-led external assistance package, a hard restructuring (e.g. notional haircuts) is unlikely to be necessary given Ukraine's relatively low level of government debt (about 43% of GDP).”

    Economic data

    The Czech Statistical Office year-on-year Q4 GDP data released on Thursday showed a 1.3% increase compared to the 1.3% drop seen the previous month.

    Hungarian Industrial Output grew by 6.1% in January on an annual basis, down from the 6.8% increase registered in December. Month-on-month it jumped 3.1%.

    Hungary's PMI data as well as confidence indicators have also been improving and Andras Balatoni from ING says that even though GDP growth is expected to slow down it should still “stay in positive territory”.

    The National Bank of Poland released FX Reserves numbers which point to a drop to €75.90B at the end of February from €78.50B.

    Meanwhile, the Gross Gold & Forex Reserves released on Friday by the South African Reserve Bank for February revealed a rise to $50.137B, while the Net Gold & Forex Reserves stood at $45.337B.

    Technicals

    The ruble weakened by 0.4% 42.5630 against the Russia's central bank euro-dollar basket on the news of the Crimean parliaments vote in favor of the region becoming part of the Russian Federation, heading towards a fourth weekly decline.

    The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 67.5537 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 5332 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4046 pips. The 1D 200 SMA is at 33.1000, while the 1D 20 EMA is neutral at 35.6278.

    The USD/UAH daily FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral.



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  6. #1086
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    Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS



    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.

    Key Quotes:

    “USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.

    “The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.

    “Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.



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  7. #1087
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    Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS



    FXStreet (Guatemala)
    - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.

    Key Quotes:

    “USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.

    “The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.

    “Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.



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  8. #1088
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    Flash: Turning monetary policy cycles - Rabobank





    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that on March 12 the market is expecting the RBNZ to be the first developed world central bank to hike interest rates in the current economic cycle.

    Key Quotes:

    “If is chooses to tighten policy the move will focus attention on what is likely to be a gradual wind down of extraordinary policy stimulus from major central banks in the coming years. Even so, a RBNZ rate hike would be in stark contrast to the policies currently being followed by other major central banks”.

    “While the Fed is tapering the size of its monthly asset purchases programme, QE looks set to remain in place in the US at least until the end of the year”.

    “In Japan, there is residual speculation that policy settings could yet be loosened further and, while the ECB’s steady policy decision this month appears to lessen the likelihood of further policy measures this year, disinflationary risks suggest it is still too early to completely rule further stimulation for the EZ economy. That said, if growth accelerates in the developed world in 2014 in line with the consensus view, the trend of monetary policy easing that still dominates the most major central banks could be in its dying throes”.

    “The market is currently expecting the BoE to adjust interest rates higher in Q2 2015 and by the end of next year rate hikes may have been announced by the Riksbank, BoC, RBA and even the Fed and ECB. Even so, there is reason to expect that caution will dominate the outlook for developed world central banks for some time”


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  9. #1089
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    Session recap: USD thrown back into the mix





    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has been a mover yet again with this time being the US session bringing the glory to the dollar through Non Farm Payrolls surprising positively to the upside. The dollar has managed to claim back some lost ground against it's peers into the close of the week.

    EUR/USD is finishing up nicely bid on the week reaching the weeks high on today’s business at 1.3916. The US economy added 175K jobs during February, surpassing forecasts at 149K and up from January’s 129K (revised from 113K).

    USD/JPY took off onto the 103 handle again this week extending yesterdays rally to a high of 103.78 bringing in targets for 104.45 en route to the more important 105.45/50 recent high and long term Fibo.

    GBP/USD was held up on EUR/GBP demand but still was equipped to manage a high of 1.6788 before the Non Farm Payrolls cut those gains down to size and took the pound back into territory of the 1.6720 daily support.

    Main headlines

    Non Farm Payrolls rising higher than expectations

    Canadian Unemployment in-line 7%

    US Consumer Credit Change rising $13.7B


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  10. #1090
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    China Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5%, missing expectations (0.8%) in February





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