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  1. #1621
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    Session recap: EUR falls through key 1.3150 level



    FXStreet (Guatemala) - The Euro finally gave up the 1.3150 barrier after the London fix and month end flows were wrapped up. US stocks and the dollar got a lift from a decent and positive end of the month set of data.

    Consumer confidence improved in the month of August with the public likely encouraged by improvements in the labour market. Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index beat expectations and improved on last print as well, printing 82.5 vs 80.1 consensus and 81.8 previous for July. Core PCE came in line with expectations at 1.5% for July month on month.

    EUR/USD had been offered from 1.3180 and bears jumped on top which pushed the pair through the 1.3150 barrier at the end of the week and leaves us wondering when this train is going to stop. There are talks of there being further barrier option interest at 1.3125 and then 1.31 the figure.

    GBP/USD was volatile at month end as the pair lost it’s footing after the European spike onto the 1.66 handle, and dropped all the way back to test territory at 1.6565. This was short lived as bulls took over and made sure of a close back on the 1.66 handle.

    USD/CAD followed through on the bid on the initial move away from the end of the week lows. Canada printed a very healthy GDP result but the greenback was relentless into the closing hours with end of month flows executed.

    Key events:

    Chicago PMI improved to 64.3 from 52.6

    Canadian GDP Q2 3.1% vs median forecast of 2.7%

    US core PCE as expected at 1.5% y/y

    Reuters/ Michigan consumer sentiment beats expectations at 82.5






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  2. #1622
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    South Africa Private Sector Credit climbed from previous 8.69% to 9.77% in July



    Read more in Forex News



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  3. #1623
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    Chinese economy still in expansionary camp – Danske Bank



    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, assessed the recent release in the Chinese economy.

    Key Quotes

    “China’s official manufacturing PMI released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in August declined to 51.1 (consensus: 51.2, DBM: 51.2) from 51.7 in July broadly in line with expectations. The HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI released in its final version this morning declined to 50.2 (revised down from 50.3) from 51.7 in July. For both manufacturing PMIs this is the lowest level since May”.

    “The details in the NBS manufacturing PMI were relatively weak. New orders declined to 53.2 from 54.2, while export orders declined slightly to 50.0 from 50.8 in July”.

    “The finished goods inventory component in the NBS manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 48.1 from 47.6 and hence the new order-inventory-balance deteriorated slightly in August. However, in both manufacturing PMIs the deterioration in the new order-inventory-balance has been modest and the level remains relatively healthy”.

    “Today’s NBS manufacturing PMI confirms that the Chinese economy again has lost some momentum and the manufacturing PMI appears to have peaked unless monetary policy and fiscal policy are eased substantially soon”.

    “In our view there are three possible explanations for the recent weakness: 1) continued weakness in the property market, 2) the impact from fiscal stimulus has started to wane with infrastructure spending showing signs of slowing in July and 3) the accelerated corruption campaign in recent months could have started to weigh on investment demand”.

    “The manufacturing PMI is expected to continue to decline slightly in the coming months. If the manufacturing PMIs move below 50 in the coming months, an interest rate cut can no longer be ruled out, even though the Chinese government has been reluctant to use monetary stimulus and has preferred fiscal stimulus instead”.






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  4. #1624
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    EMU: Manufacturing PMI (Aug) at 50.7



    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The manufacturing gauge of the PMI for the euro area remains in expansionary territory during August, despite coming down to 50.7 vs. 50.8 forecasted and July’s 51.8. The German measure followed suit, down to 51.4 from 52.4.





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  5. #1625
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    Gold consolidates below $1,290



    FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold spot started the week on a quiet note after printing a weekly gain and a slight monthly advance in August, although the rise stalled around $1,290 during the European trade.

    XAU/USD rose around $5.00 an ounce and reached a daily high just above $1,290 but pulled back afterwards and it is currently trading around $1,288 slightly above its opening price.

    Soft economic data around the globe and ongoing geopolitical tensions have kept the metal on demand, although moves have been timid as investors are taking a more cautious stance. Today liquidity will probably remain low as US markets are closed due to the Labor Day holiday.





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  6. #1626
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    What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank



    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is meandering around a narrow range at the beginning of the week, keeping the trade near 1-year lows.

    EUR/USD has stabilised but the downtrend remains firmly intact. We expect EUR/USD to range trade and possibly bounce around the ECB meeting but any bounce should be short-lived. We target EUR/USD to reach 1.30 in 1M and 1.27 in 3M”, observed Pernille Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.

    Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, commented, “Resistance comes in along the downtrend channel resistance line at 1.3177and the 1.3222 August 28 high as well as at 1.3333/36. Further resistance can be seen along the three month downtrend line at 1.3376. While trading below here, downside pressure should be maintained”.




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  7. #1627
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    AUD/USD drifting to 0.9340



    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now coming down from intraday peaks near 0.9350, taking the AUD/USD to the 0.9340/35 band.

    AUD/USD capped by 0.9370

    The RBA will hold its monetary policy meeting tomorrow, although market consensus expects the central bank to leave the refi rate unchanged at 2.5% and repeat the neutral tone from last meetings. According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, “we think the market preference for carry may remain in force with leveraged net AUD longs in the latest week growing in the latest week. Ahead of the RBA tomorrow, expect the pair to be negatively buoyant within 0.9270-0.9370”.

    AUD/USD levels to watch

    At the moment the pair is up 0.01% at 0.9340 with the next resistance at 0.9376 (high Aug.6) followed by the psychological level at 0.9400. On the downside, a break below 0.9300 (low Aug.27) would expose 0.9272 (low Aug.26) and then 0.9235 (low Aug.21).





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  8. #1628
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    EUR rebound not ruled out - Societe Generale



    FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, contemplates the likelihood of a rebound in the EUR in the near term.

    Key Quotes

    "The foreign exchange market is doing its absolute best to ignore mounting geo-political tension as the Ukraine crisis deepens. Instead, positioning data (for last Tuesday) point to the two dominant themes - a bearish consensus about the outlook for the Euro and a yield-hungry bias more widely."

    "EUR non-commercial short on the CFTC are at their highest level since soon after Mr Draghi's ‘whatever it takes' speech two years ago. Clearly, the market is in danger of disappointment if the ECB meeting on Thursday fails to deliver more than dovish rhetoric and promises of action."

    "Yet, the failure to stage any kind of month-end bounce on Friday as the Ukraine crisis deepened, leaves a challenging technical picture. And economic, monetary policy dovergence point to a huge amount of potential EUR/USD downside as this interest rate cycle finally gets going. It's set up to be choppy, and the risk of a Thursday bounce is very high, but irrespective of the consensual nature and the precedent from 2012, we want to be short when the NFP data are released on Friday."





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  9. #1629
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    USD remains bid - Investec



    FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, observes the firm tone from the greenback.

    Key Quotes

    "The US Dollar has managed to hold on to recent gains amidst selling pressures at the tail end of last week from month end fixing flows. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Ukraine and Russia causing unease in the markets combined with better US data have helped the greenback in recent sessions."

    "Weaker Chinese PMI Manufacturing overnight only served to keep the US Dollar bid into today's open. The euro, in contrast, has continued to weaken after a dovish speech from ECB President Mario Draghi a week ago at Jackson Hole leaving some investors looking for additional easing this week, although a full blown ABS purchase scheme may not have all the details ironed out in time - we could certainly see the deposit rate lowered further into negative territory which would hurt the euro badly and would almost certainly mean 1.30 in EURUSD becomes a real possibility."





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  10. #1630
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    GBP/USD holds onto gains



    FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD has been one of the main movers in a quiet September kick-off, as investors await key events later this week and with the US out for the Labor Day.

    The GBP/USD picked up momentum and managed to break above the 1.6610 resistance area, climbing to a high of 1.6643 before finding resistance. However with the subsequent dip contained by the former resistance area at 1.6610, the Cable was confined to a sideways phase. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.6620, up 0.16% on the day.

    GBP/USD technical outlook

    “The hourly chart presents a technical bullish stance, with indicators heading north above their midlines, and 20 SMA gaining upward slope below current price”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “The 4 hours chart shows also a positive technical tone, yet some steady gains above mentioned 1.6630 level are required to confirm further advances, eyeing then a test of the 1.6670 price zone”.

    Bednarik locates next support levels at 1.6600, 1.6570 and 1.6540, while she sees resistances at 1.6630, 1.6665 and 1.6700.





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